AI did not kill engineers. It changed who gets hired
SignalFire data suggests engineering hiring has held up better than other tech functions. The problem is less the disappearance of engineers and more the narrowing path for junior talent.
Summary
TechCrunch reviewed SignalFire data that challenges the simplest version of the AI jobs story: that AI coding tools would quickly reduce demand for engineers.
According to the report, total hiring at large tech companies is down 25% compared with 2019, but engineering hiring is down only 11%. Engineers now account for 55% of new hires at the companies SignalFire classifies as Tech Majors, up from 46% in 2019.
At early-stage startups, the signal is even clearer: engineering hiring is up 7% compared with 2019, while design and marketing are down.
In practice
AI is not simply eliminating software engineering work. It is changing the shape of teams.
Startups and large tech companies appear to be cutting coordination layers, support functions, and more generalist roles while keeping or strengthening technical teams that can build, review, integrate, and operate AI-enabled systems.
The effect is less "fewer engineers" and more "less room for engineers who cannot operate independently". SignalFire describes a flatter, more technical tech company that depends more heavily on senior or highly productive individual contributors.
What we still don't know
The data does not prove that AI is protecting every engineering job. It shows that, so far, technical hiring has held up better than other functions in the technology sector.
There is also a clear problem at the bottom of the career ladder. SignalFire says new graduate hiring is down roughly 65% at large tech companies and 76% at early-stage startups compared with 2019. Engineering may be resilient at the senior end, but the entry point is narrower.
Because the data comes from a venture capital firm using its own methodology, it should be read as a useful signal rather than a complete picture of the global labour market.
Why it matters
- It corrects the simple idea that coding tools automatically replace programmers.
- It shows that AI may increase demand for engineers who can work with more complex systems.
- It exposes a serious risk for junior talent: fewer entry-level seats and less learning inside companies.
- It suggests AI's labour impact will be uneven: less coordination, fewer support roles, and more pressure on builders.